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Eritrean Resolve, Demise of the TPLF and US in the Middle

TPLF security forces attacking football spectators in Addis Ababa

Eritrean Resolve, Demise of the TPLF and US in the Middle

Amanuel Biedemariam

Human rights violations, genocides, ethnic cleansing, election-rigging, mass imprisonment, corruption, selling-interests of Ethiopia for temporary gains, human trafficking, abuse of power, torture and mismanagement etc…is rampant in Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) led Ethiopia.

In 2010, after the TPLF, claiming to have won 99% of the votes declared itself winner, former Ambassador to Ethiopia Ambassador David Shinn said,
How do you win 99% of the vote?  That's un-American and yet, Ethiopia remains a darling of the donor community.
It is un-American to support the outcomes of rigged elections no matter where it may take place. The reality however, successive US administrations have been in-bed, immersed in everything TPLF.

In 2005, after demonstrations broke out to contest the rigged election, Meles Zenawi summoned his troops to stop the demonstrators which lead to mass killings. At the time, Ethiopian authorities used US Humvees to control the streets. Ironically, what got the attention of US law makers more than the killings of innocent unarmed demonstrators was the fact that Ethiopian troops used US Humvees.

US built Humvees on the streets associated with killing became a concern for fear that it could damage the Humvee brand. Consequently this became a major topic in US congressional hearings and the regime did not use the Humvees again. US national interests always reign above American ideals that the nation’s founders based it on.

Today, US national interests in Ethiopia and the region are at crossroads. The US faces imminent geo-strategic challenges in the Horn of Africa, Middle East and other regions. These changes are taking place outside US control and they are likely to influence US strategic approaches and present major challenges for US policy makers for years to come.

The latest developments in Yemen are amongst events that are stirring the pot in ways that can influence the national security interests of Saudi Arabia, Israel and others. And if it is not dealt with correctly, these developments can ultimately impair US national interests in the region.

Publicly US officials appear unfazed. Israel and Saudi Arabia on the other hand are concerned that recent developments in Yemen could escalate and pose national security threats. On a recent article in the “Al Monitor” of the Middle East publication, Mr. Ephraim Sneh, a retired Israeli general clearly wrote,
“For Saudi Arabia, a Houthi takeover of western Yemen, while al-Qaeda controls the country’s center and eastern areas, constitute a clear and present danger. Israel also cannot remain indifferent to the new Iranian stronghold on the seaway that connects it to Africa and Asia.”

The seaway Mr. Sneh is referring to is the Red Sea. The Red Sea is key strategic seaways of the world and countries in the region. Hence, threats on the Red Sea amount to threats to their national interests.

US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia have long felt in control of the Red Sea mainly because the countries in the region are US allies. That stability is now shaken because Yemen and Saudi Arabia have long history of conflicts. These countries share borders and conflict between them could potentially become a source of instability. A strong Yemen that controls Baab El Mendeb is a source of concern for Saudi Arabia because it could potentially pose uncertainties for the oil exports that flow through the Red Sea to Asia and beyond. For Israel the concern is Yemen Iranian alliance. In this scenario the domino effects on US interests in the region are dire.

The US is known to change policies at critical stages. This is a critical stage. The unipolar world the US expected to dominate has alternatives. The US dominated the region’s political direction for some time. Today however, Russia, China and India are amongst key players changing the geo-political dynamics of the region. These countries are willing to invest and compete with the US indiscriminately without preconditions.

The only countries that the US cannot impose direct control in the region have been Eritrea and Sudan. And the strategy for dealing with them has been and remains regime change. The US pursues its regime change agenda overtly and covertly. The depth of US involvement was recently exposed by a letter that showed coordination of activities as well as funding between US State Department, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. Ethiopia however remains the key ally that the US funnels its regime change agenda.

Ethiopia at Crossroads

For long US strategy has been to divide Africa to four regions and assign each quadrant to a nation that can control the region. For the Horn and East of Africa the US funneled its strategies through Ethiopia. The war on terror, Somalia, Eritrea, Sudan and South Sudan are some of the agendas pursued through Ethiopia.

The Inter-Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) and the AU are the African face used to legitimize US actions through the UN or directly. This approach was used in 2009 and 2011 when the US and Ethiopia pursued and passed UN sanctions on Eritrea as part of the regime change agenda.

However, today the NATO and US allies are increasingly at odds with Russia and China. Their interests are clashing often. What this means is that the US can no longer use the UN to pass punitive measures against nations in the manner that it did in the past. It also means previous sanctions and decisions passed through the UN will be difficult if not impossible to enforce.

As a designated anchor state, Ethiopia was used extensively in pursuit of US agendas. However, US’s strategies in the region are failing in large part because Ethiopia fails to deliver. The regime change agenda of Eritrea and South Sudan are amongst key pieces of US strategies that failed.  

To the contrary, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front regime is falling and ready to take Ethiopia down with it. As a result Ethiopia is at crossroads facing imminent instability if urgent steps are not taken.

Realities in Ethiopia are dire. In 2008, at the height of TPLF’s propaganda of 11-13% growth, Ethiopia stood as one of the World's poorest countries. Out of a population of around 80 million people, 35 million people were living in abject poverty. In 2014, according to The Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), published by Oxford University, “Ethiopia ranked as the second poorest country in the world just ahead of Niger where 87.3% of Ethiopians are classified as poor, while 58.1% are considered destitute.”
These conditions are prompting the US to express concerns openly.  On the 2014 Trafficking of Persons Report, The State Department stated,
The central market in Addis Ababa is home to the largest collection of brothels in Africa, with girls as young as 8-years-old in prostitution in these establishments.
Object poverty, mismanagement, lack of political space, ethnically divided maps and armed insurgency are time-bombs that will likely incinerate Ethiopia if urgent steps are not taken. The current leadership has no legitimacy and the resistance to it is growing. Recent defections of eight Ethiopian Air force pilots within 2 weeks are indications of a much larger problem. Amongst the latest defections, out of the four that took MI-35 Air Force helicopter to Eritrea, two are from Tigray, home-region of the TPLF. These developments will create suspicions within the ranks of the institution and damage readiness. The most important implication however is the fact that the TPLF hardliners are abandoning ship ahead of the storm, a sign of disintegrating core.

Moreover, Ethiopians, including from Tigray region are joining the armed struggle against the regime in large numbers. The Oromo, Ogaden and Afar regions have been waging armed struggle for a long time. The struggle for land and resources in central Ethiopia’s Amhara region especially Gondar has intensified. The lines the TPLF drew to divide and rule has now become the fault-lines that can tear the nation apart. These challenges are exacerbated by land- lease policy that gives away huge chunks of the nation while displacing indigenous communities in the Gambella and other regions.

US in the Middle  

Failure of the TPLF is a reflection of failed US policies in the region. The TPLF was in no way capable to stand on its own. Ethiopia survives solely based on the large assistance it receives from UK, EU and others. The US provides the largest financial, material, military, political and diplomatic support that sustains the regime. And buttressed by these covers the TPLF has managed to stave off the opposition using brute force thus far.

For long Ethiopians tried to participate in the political process peacefully. The reality however, as minority, democracy is not a process that the TPLF can survive therefore it resorts to brute force and criminal manipulations to maintain the grip on power. As a result frustrated and left without choices, increasing number of Ethiopians are lifting arms to struggle against the TPLF.

Prior to 1991, American policy for Eritrea was to ensure that Eritrea remained Ethiopian province. That changed when Eritrea defeated Mengistu Hailemariam-led Ethiopia, and escorted the current regime into Addis Ababa which forced the US to reevaluate its policy and accepted Eritrea’s hard won independence.
The US had no choice because Eritrea was in a position and capable to destabilize Ethiopia. Eritrea’s priority however was to ensure independence recognized by the world. This was during the breakup of the Soviet Union that left the US as a sole super power. That meant the US had to go along with legitimizing Eritrea’s independence through the UN and it did because there was no other choice. To save Ethiopia the US was forced to accept Eritrean independence.

Today the US finds itself in the same position. The current regime in Ethiopia has no legitimacy. The people of Ethiopia have managed to create armed forces capable to challenge the regime. And these fast developments are taking shape outside US control which presents the US with major challenge because there is no viable alternative to the current regime inside Ethiopia.


The people of Eritrea and Ethiopia have seen very little respite from conflicts for years. The developments of the past 16 years have taught both peoples lasting lessons. The greatest lesson above all is the importance of peace. For long, many Ethiopians took making peace with Eritrea to mean surrender of their Eritrean ambitions. However, extreme suppression and lack of alternatives has led Ethiopians to embrace Eritrea as the only hope. Today, the people of Tigray, Amhara, Oromo, Ogaden and every region in Ethiopia see Eritrea as the only country that they can depend on in bad and good times. For Eritrea peace has always been the goal and key ingredient for successful coexistence.

The only thing that stands in the way of peace is the TPLF. Today, change in Ethiopia is eminent and Ethiopians have taken ownership. That realization is sinking in the minds of the people of the region while sending shockwaves into the psyche of the ruling minority clique. As a result many are abandoning the sinking ship.

These are the current realities and the US is faced with tough choices. To continue supporting the regime can lead to abrupt change that could destabilize Ethiopia. And to have any voice on the future of the region and particularly Ethiopia, the US needs Eritrea’s assistance. The US position on Eritrea has so far been counterproductive. However, recent developments in the region particularly Yemen is adding to the urgency of the need to work with Eritrea. The Obama Administration has shown flexibility when left with no choice to change policy at it did with Cuba. The fast paced developments in the region are leaving the US with no option which means it is time for change.
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Eritrean Resolve, Demise of the TPLF and US in the Middle Reviewed by Admin on 10:40 AM Rating: 5



  2. Your crazy., his Quoting the US STATE DEPARTMENT your master and best friend. It's like your telling him why are you quoting my mom or my dad?.. and if it was anyone else you would say that it is not facts.

    You don't list any reasons at all. Eritrea is my enemy! that's it? really? why?., why does your nation continue with its puppet master try to control or cause havoc in Eritrea? answer me that question. Why after a court decision with your favorite ally United states present did you say i agree here is my SIGNATURE., and they deny your own word? We Eritrean know your word is no good from long ago it might be surprise for others but not us. So we will continue to fight until our goal is achieve and that is to live in peace. The imperial powers that control you for your whole history of "kings" is still at large you are just too ignore to know it., instead you spout Eritrea is my ENEMY. Yes the nation you guys keep saying is NOT a threat is too tiny is not a problem etc.. is your enemy? please go and think to yourself who your real enemy is and also ask yourself why does a Saudi Arabian own most of your country and why Indians own land as big as Switzerland inside your country. All this while occupying 800 meters in badme and swearing up and down how brave you are for it. Eritrea have not even been aggressive even ONCE they just want their land and want YOU off it. But there is no reason to send our kids to die for badme. Especially when its Legally ours and it is just a matter of time we will get it back.

  3. It doesn't make any logical sense! How is a hated minority junta represinting 5million out of 100 million hostile population able to amass 99% vote on a national election? That wouldn't even happen in a very eglitarian democratic countries let alone a poor backward and tribal Ethiopia. Ethiopian election has always been gimmick and will continue to be for the simple fact that it doesn't have the necessary institution or educated population to make it. they should stop kidding themselves and working on provision of basic necessities and dignity for their citizens.

  4. Who planned of the ethiopian fragmentation is the same minor leading group called weyane adopting the ethno-federal system which doesn't fit to ethiopians.
    I'm released that now the ethiopian majority understand what Eritrean leaders and people stands for (peaceful coexistence, mutual benefit and respect) on the case of ethiopian political system since the years 1991, thanks to esat satellite tv people is informed now.

  5. It is un-American to throw out the constitution and promise to write another one.

  6. Amanuel Biedemariam, you're fantastic, i love the way you write and i agree with your vision brohter, i'm eager all the time to read you, thanks as usual.

  7. Nothing to add, you say it well.

  8. There is no constitution, no rule of law, no free press, no freedom of worship, no parliament, and certainly no elections in Eritrea. What is this Amanuel complaining about the Ethiopians? Why doesn't he write about the lack freedom and egregious human rights violations in Eritrea?

  9. Daniel, dont forget the fact that the EPRDF is multi-ethnic and multi religious political party. It is a prty that is succesfully transforming the nation. Of course, now and then the government uses excessive force and manipulation. But, by all standard, this is the first government in ethiopia history that managed to make ethiopia the main pillar of east africa in particular and african in general.

  10. You asking to much of him man. It's beyond me for him to write about the unfairness of Ethiopian election when we don't have an election at all.

  11. Dear jowhansen, if a certain way fits to some nations, it doesn't mean necessarily fits to another, to get in detail, as you're pointing to free press, elections ect..I can assure you what you're referring to, is a total nonsense or false guidance (i live in EU) I can assure you that is a total fake the freedom they have there, manipulated by hidden or visible powers, in short economic power, so my dear you can't teach as here saying free this, free that..Eritrea have Her own way of doing i can assure you more naive and equo than that of many nations of EU or us.

  12. Thanks Hillas for your say it clearly


  14. Hi Amaniel/Halhal, nice to see you here. I see that you are still holding on to the script of 'the imminent demise of woyane'. While any dictatorial regime will fall eventually (be it the Ethiopian regime or the Eritrean regime), I wonder why you this time around believe the TPLF regime's fall is around the corner. We have heard the same story over and over again from your likes. Just to give you a reminder of your past arguments.

    1998 (start of the war):TPLF regime will fall since it has no public support and the people will not rally behind it and Shaebia is better on the battlefield etc.

    1999(Badme captured by TPLF):TPLF regime will fall since they paid such a heavy price for Badme etc.

    2000(A QUARTER of Eritrea's territory occupied by TPLF and Eritrean regime agrees to a buffer zone 25 miles wide COMPLETELY inside Eritrean territory): TPLF regime will fall since it cannot explain to the public why the war is over and Ethiopia does not have her so called 'natural outlet to the sea'.

    2001(Private press closed down in Eritrea, G15 heroes arrested and complete tyranny of isaias starts):TPLF regime will fall since it's enablers inside Eritrea are now taken out (Petros Solomon, Haile Woldetensae etc.) etc.

    2002(EEBC awards Badme, Tsorona to Eritrea and Zalambessa and Bure to Ethiopia ):TPLF regime will fall since the people will overthrow it because it waged a war for nothing etc.

    2005(Ethiopian regime mows down 200 people in Addis and arrests thousands after post-election demonstrations):TPLF regime will fall since the people have finally stood up and are ready to overthrow the regime once and for all.

    2006(Ethiopian regime invades Somalia overthrowing the ICU):TPLF regime will fall since it cannot fight a war on multiple fronts etc.

    2009(UNSC approves a weapons embargo and other sanctions on Eritrea): TPLF regime will fall since the sanctions will make Eritrea self-reliant etc.

    2010(The Ethiopian regime steals the election with 99.8% of the seats after committing massive fraud):TPLF regime will fall since the people will not accept the outcome and will come out in the streets again etc.

    2012(Ethiopian dictator meles dies from a brain tumor in Brussels):TPLF regime will fall since it cannot function without it's strongman and the other senior members will fight for the top post of prime minister etc.

    2015:TPLF regime will fall since.....

    Do you see the trend here Amaniel? Year after year, you have made false prediction after false prediction. I see that forecasting political events is not your greatest skill. Perhaps it would be better to focus on cab driving in DC, or being a 'community organizer'. Boy mister Biedemariam the frustrated amiche, the Ethiopian regime must have really gotten under your nerve. When will you mention the indefinite imprisonment of some of Eritrea's greatest people (Brigadier-General Ogbe Abraha to name one)? Do you have the nerve to call him a traitor and weyane from your comfortable home in DC? The irony of you talking about begging, from your cozy DC home. Make sure to ask for a tip when driving people in your cabby mister beggar. And make sure you think about the Ogbe Abraha's, the Petros Solomons of Eritrea who sacrificed EVERYTHING they had while you were leading a comfortable life abroad.

  15. matewos gebremariamJanuary 19, 2015 at 6:16 AM

    Great reply to the charlatan and frustrated amiche halhal lol.

    Ogbe Abraha, Petros Solomon have shown more bravery and honor than all the chicken hawks supporting the Asmara regime from their comfortable home in the West at madote and TN combined. Have you heard about the crucial role Brigadier General Ogbe played in the Egri-Mekel battle where weyane broke their back and lost 50.000 soldiers? Ogbe has always been a modest and honorable man and that's what defines him the most to me. Whether he was minister of Trade and Industry, or serving in the military, always the same modesty and hard work that made the people in his immediate surroundings admire him.

  16. What is "Eritrea's ...own way"? Absolute dictatorship? :o

  17. Cane Libero - Ethiopia is not fragmented. Ethiopia is ONE, UNITED with a Steel resolve. It's now been almost 24 years since you've been barking about the fragmentation of Ethiopia... You're nothing but a hapless Buchila that is in denial of the impeding fragmentation of Eritrea. All the poisons you and your kind concocted for Ethiopia is being poured down the gullet of Eritrea.

  18. Guaranteed TPLF would be wiped out this year , if it was to hold a free and fair election this year. anybody dispute that? .

  19. Amanuel,
    Another great article.
    As usual, your great article while exposing Woyane, also works like a magnet in attracting the puppets woyane here in Madote. Thank you & keep up the good work.

  20. We don't pretend to hold a phantom election.

  21. Daniel,
    With or without fair election
    With or without election, the days of Woyane are numbered.

  22. Yes, keep kidding yourself Aragawi.

  23. TPLF would have been history long time ago, if it isn't for the idealness of Ethiopians.

  24. I do not know what you mean by "the main pillar of east africa in particular and african in general," but I will take it as "prominent in Africa." Ethiopia has always been a prominent member in the African continent because of its perceived never colonized status and because it is the seat of the African Union (as well as its predecessor the Organization of African Unity). The difference today is that no other country dare not take it as so or else any country that does not let Ethiopia have its way will have to face the wrath of its (Ethiopia's as well as those in the region except Eritrea) patrons! After all, it is an "Anchor Nation" with almost a 100 million population to spare, isn't it? By the way, "pillar" could also mean "anchor." The billions that are paid out to the EPRDF government are the "allowance payments" that are necessary to make it enjoy the "pillar = prominent" status. In return, there are tangible evidences that show that the nation is a proxy administrator of the colonial forces!

    The good thing for the EPRDF and the TPLF within it, is that the 4 billion plus in direct foreign assistance and grants and the similar billions brought in by NGO's (who have been given free reign in the development and social affairs of the country) is ample enough to steal parallel to building shiny structures to fool the public into thinking that they are all doing well and better under the EPDRF and thus accept it and its authority over them.

  25. It seems like Amanuel is engaging us in his wishful thinking instead of a sound political analysis. I'm really amazed at his obsession with Ethiopia while Eritrea suffers from lack of political space. Everything in Eritrea seems to be controlled by the regime without the consent of the people. Amanuel should work to bring about political reform in Eritrea if he is genuinely interested in peace and democracy in the Horn of Africa region.

  26. Church \ Church in Africa

    Pope establishes Eastern Catholic church for Eritrea

    A new diocese for Ethiopia and a new Metropolitan for Eritrea

  27. ከዳሚ ስርዓትJanuary 19, 2015 at 1:07 PM

    And to have any voice on the future of the region and particularly Ethiopia, the US needs Eritrea’s assistance.

    Amanuel, is this a wish or a prediction that PFDJ will be the future menial regime (ከዳሚ ስርዓት) of USA

  28. Let Weyane go to hell, but what about holding free and fair elections in Eritrea?

  29. ሳግላ ብላዕ ኣይትቕላዕJanuary 19, 2015 at 1:32 PM

    Johansen, Amanuel is not interested in peace and democracy, instead he is interested.... ሳግላ ብላዕ ኣይትቕላዕ.

  30. Once someone asked Wedi Gebeya, "How is the human rights situation in Eritrea," he replied, "Are there humans in Eritrea. Because of some people like Amanuel Biedemariam, Mike and their likes that lost any human value, our beloved country has became a fertile land for dictatorship.

  31. The tyrant said in 30 or 40 years. Is that what you're waiting for?

  32. listing all the item above, doesn't mean we'll going for an indefinite period, cause there is a limit for everything..Again you can't let us believe that the minor regime in ethiopia have the ethiopian mass support..

  33. Can you say this in Gondar, Harar, Hawasa, Oromia, Gambela? With terror and fear you're right, but the result is that the intellectuals now starts to boycott you, look at the last events fo the pilots..My friend from tplf cadre, this is not a way to take a people united nor we as your're adopting your masters policy which in world wide also is failing..analyze the geo-politics in world wide and not in a "narrow abay tegray mentality"

  34. Your replay is prone to touch the Author's persona (as writer, thinker, poet ect). But who are you then? a weyane kadre or a councilors member to evaluate? We as Eritreans are proud about Amanuel's great mind..learn how to express your self first to be at his level and then criticize..betki

  35. Again, EPRDF did not get 99% of the Vote. EPRDF got 99% of the Seat.

  36. Seat vote all the same. Weyane is a fraud.

  37. Eritreans are categorized in two groups, cat 1 are the supporters of the tyrannical regime and cat 2 justice and freedom seekers, so Zillas, when you speak about Eritreans you have to clarify which Eritreans you mean.
    Thank you

  38. That is different argument than misleading your reader using a lie saying 99% of voters voted for eprdf when eprdf can win 100% of the seat winning only 51% of the vote.

  39. Stop singing from your rear end. Of course TPLF claimed 99.6% vote in the 2010 election.

    ''During the election 2005 more than 200 anti-government protesters were gun-downed by the ruling party. The government cheated on many election sites and got 307 seats of the 547 seats in the parliament. During election 2010 there were only one opposition party and the government claimed a 99.6% winning result, which is non-existent figure in the real democracy. Even the so-called democratic western countries claim winning result around 50- 60%''

    Not only that but they also claimed to have won 499 of 537 'parlamant seats'.

    kkkkkk.... Weyane are priceless!!!

  40. 99% of the seat!...kkkkkk. Sounds like a weyane infestation than a government. Yukkkkkkk!

  41. kkkk.....freedom seekers or disillusioned coffee shop opposition?

  42. If you, Johansen, should work to make the Weyane implement the EEBC decision if you are genuinely interested in peace and democracy in the Horn of Africa.

  43. berhane,the above you mentioned is the steps that weyane makes fall down.


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