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Ethiopia's threat of war against Eritrea is a bluff

Arbegnoch-Ginbot7 rebels on the move in Northern Ethiopia

In what has become a perverse annual tradition for the minority clique in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on Tuesday has warned it may go to war against Eritrea because of what Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn called Eritrea's 'destabilizing' activities in the region.

The latest saber-rattling comes days after the coalition Ethiopian rebel group Arbegnoch-Ginbot 7 launched a major offensive on regime positions deep within Northern Ethiopia. According to reports, the rebels were able to overrun TPLF military positions in Western Tigray; exposing just how vulnerable and limited Ethiopia's military prowess really is.

But while the stunning battlefield victory of the rebels may have rattled bigwigs in Addis Ababa, the threat of war against Eritrea was likely a bluff in which the regime knows it is in no position follow through on for the following three reasons:

  1. With President Barack Obama set to visit Ethiopia later in July, the Ethiopian dictatorship has been on its best behavior. It has released journalists and announced they will give Obama an official Ethiopian name. So the last thing TPLF wants to do is attack Eritrea, as the international media would focus on the Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict ahead of Obama's visit, which would then make Obama either skip visiting Ethiopia, or if he does visit, he would be under pressure to bring up Ethiopia's occupation of sovereign Eritrean territory which is at the heart of the conflict.  

  2. It's the rainy season in most parts of Eritrea and Ethiopia, especially along the highland border areas. Therefore, it would be a logistical nightmare to wage an attack.

  3. Ethiopia's forces are stretched too thin. Just a day before even stating the threat, TPLF quietly sent 3,000 troops into Somalia, raising suspicion that the threat was a cover for this operation. With so much of its forces extended, TPLF knows it has severely limited its fighting capacity, thus they are not likely to engage with Eritrea while they are in a weakened military position.

Even if these aforementioned issues weren't in the way, the setbacks alone suffered from TPLF's military campaign in Somalia is enough to not want to pick a fight with Eritrea. In many ways, Somalia has become Ethiopia's Waterloo. Ethiopian troops are taken causalities by the hundreds per month. This is taking a toll on the moral of its soldiers and commanders. Things are getting so bad that one of TPLF's trusted commanders, Colonial Tilahun, recently defected to the militant group al-Shabab, after promising to convert to Islam.

On the domestic front, things are even more worse. TPLF is committing horrid human rights abuses and limiting the political landscape. Power is dominated by the TPLF, which hails from an ethnic group comprising of less than 6% of the population. The severe ethnic polarization and lack of political freedoms in the country is compelling more and more Ethiopian Air Force pilots, seasoned troops and disillusioned citizens to defect to Eritrea to form fighting forces of their own.

Among the largest of these groups is the Tigrayan Peoples Democratic Movement (TPDM). With over 20,000 fighters[1] in its rank, TPDM is by far the largest rebel group in the Horn of Africa, and is arguably the biggest domestic challenge to the ruling regime. The fact that so many young Ethiopians have joined this rebel group shows that even Tigrayans, which have been traditionally the power base of TPLF, yearn for a regime change in the country.

While many Ethiopians are picking up arms to fight the brutal TPLF dictatorship, others are taking the fight to social networking sites like Facebook. Some like Kuma Mossisa, an Ethiopian who studied civil Engineering at Addis Ababa Institute of Technology, took the threat of war against Eritrea as an opportunity to poke fun of TPLF's North Korean-style 100% election victory:

"War with Eritrea is not as simple as winning 100% parliament seats by vote rigging!"

In conclusion, TPLF's latest threat against Eritrea is nothing more than desperation by a belligerent regime that's facing military opposition on multiple fronts. With Obama on his way to visit, the rainy season in full swing and with Ethiopian forces stretched thin, TPLF has severely diminished its fighting capacity. Thus, the latest threat of war against Eritrea should be seen as a sign of desperation from an overstretched military desperately hoping its enemies do not call out its bluff and capitalize on its vulnerabilities.


The following are Facebook comments of Ethiopians reacting to their PM's threat of war against Eritrea:

1. Page 29,
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Ethiopia's threat of war against Eritrea is a bluff Reviewed by Admin on 2:22 PM Rating: 5


  1. If it is a bluff, why not Asmara keeps on shooting?

  2. ata adgi, Asmara is watching a lion called Daniel Tecklehaimanot, Merhawi Kudus, Natnael Berhane..

  3. Tewelde G/mariamJuly 11, 2015 at 7:58 PM

    Eritreans must not fall again to isaias afewerki treachery. The 1998 war he launched , he told us that it was in self defense against the alleged woyane invasion. We know now that it was a lie because he himself admitted to the Ethiopian Eritrean Claim Commission.

    And by his subsequent evil deeds and the hardships our people haven been passing through since that war, it has become self evident that he launched it to annihilate our country and people. There should no doubt about this fact. We must pay attention to his evil deeds and not to his words, which he has invariably been using to mask his evil intentions and deeds.

    By the Algiers aggreement, Eritrea and Ethiopia are forbidden to conduct war against each other. It is in violation of this aggreement that isaias afewerki has been training , arming the so called Ethiopian opposition and the Demhits and using them as his proxy to wage war on Ethiopia.

    More than ever, isaias afewerki is lately pushing his proxy army to escalate their military attacks on Ethiopia. And no genuine Eritrean should be fooled into believing that this surge of military actvities have no relation to the Commission of Inquiry proposal that he might have committed Crime Against Humanity. I am fully convinced that he is tying to plunge our country into a war before he is apprehended by the ICC, into a war that our country can ill afford. His characterization to the Ethiopian threat as a bluff is an invitation and provocation for war.

    He must be stopped by any means necessary.Eritreans at home, including the so called PFDJs, the mlitary, the public at large etc. must be aware that if they do not preempt him, our country and us, as people, are doomed for good.

  4. Dear Tewelde:
    For the record:
    While your arguement might have some sense,consider the following Facts:
    1)It is but Eritreans' SOLE responsibility to deal with the Eritrean Business
    2)Tell us the outcome of the invovlement of the UN and its proxies in the name of ICC Courting PIA-Hint : Libya,Iraq,etc-
    -BTW:If Field Marshal Al Beshir,who killed more than 2 million S suidanes and Darfurs,Pres George Bush and PM Tony Blare,who killed more than a Million Iraqis are safe,then justify as to why PIA should be ICC courted?
    I undertsand that PIA should be accountable for his mistakes or "crimes" but CHANGE should could come by Eritreans through Eritreans ONLY!
    3)Please,for the sake of Honesty and Rationality,advise us about the role of Ethiopia,that of,its Masters and its puppets like Somalia and Dijbouti on the COIE and its possible implication and motivation,not to mention its unknown consequences.
    4)If Ethiopia is threatening and violating the Eri Sovereignty and National Security interest,including its very existence as a nation based on the FACTS on the ground, by all means possible and by all possible modalities,why can't Eritrea have the right to defend herself by all means possible and by all forms of modalities,at least theoretically speaking,? And I wsih we have the capacity to do so-for the sake of self-defense though.
    5)Can you show us some Courage and GUT to talk about the lawless weyanes you seem to defend?
    Please, advise the weyanes to respect the Rule of Law and the International Norms and Rules so as to resolve our issues peacefully.
    Read the leaked Wikileaks between the Eri Emabssy and Mr Cohen.
    Guess what?
    Mr Cohen will travel to Tel Aviv/Jerusalem and will persuade the Jewish State to intervene in the Ethio-Eri game and your DIA might win .--specially if the leak about Mr Abdella Jabir is true,where the Saufdi criminal Security Agents might have attempted a Regime Change in Eritrea in the name of Islam(which I doubt but still possible/could not be ruled out based on the back ground history of the Saudis messing in our internal affairs and into that of Syria and Iraq and Bahrain)
    The Ethiopian Gov shoud talk peace,not war..And if history is the witness,I am afraid that Ethiopia might end up turning itself into ashes.
    Your analogy might work for Ethiopia "better' if war starts,god forbid!.
    Hint: The OLF,the ONLF,the Gambelas,the Arbegnoch,the Ginbot-7,the Demhit,the al Shebabs,etc--might sandiwch the weyanes,not to mention the role of the silent Elephant/Egypt--etc--and Eritrea..,if some how bitten..
    Please, leave alone PIA and talk about the National Security of Eritrea.I am getting suspicious about your "coded" message albeit your articulation.
    "Yal teretere tementere"!

  5. TN:
    Your analysis and arguement might hold some water but,let us learn a lesson from our recent history--the Third Weyane Offensive.
    You cannot undermine your enemy and its THREATs at all.Plus,what did we do when the Weyanes violated repeatedly our Sovereign Land?
    Their Alert Level now is Red--the highest! Their Air force is on high alert!
    Am not sure where Eritrea's Alert Level is but ,in my opinion,it should be the HIGEST,not just Red or High!
    of course,"Zighebir nedi'u neineghir eyyu" but ,hey,---!
    What did we do about the Bisha and the Arms Depo bombing?
    What do you think we can do if the Weyanes rain Asmera,Aseb,Massawa,Bisha,Hirgigo,etc-- with N Korea-made Medium Range Guided Missiles?Didn't they do it recently?
    Why can't they do it now as they have a green light and an OK from the West?
    It is ok to have a counter-propaganda but we have to prepare for any eventuality,considering the step wise threats and sanctions,etc--against us.And as such,we have to renew our propaganda machine as well to counter this Threat and Psycho-warfare!
    This is what the Weyane Agents told us at the
    "Ethiopia knows when to hit Eritrea hard"!
    "Why should Ethiopia deal with a collapsing regime?
    The ..tigraionline and aiga forum have been waging that war propaganda machine.
    Obama Visit?
    Listen,Dr Susan Rice is on BOARD still and will accompany Mr Obama along with Ms Gail Smith..
    The conspiracy is still alive and being renewed against Eritrea.Obama and its Security Gang might have some thing bad in mind against Eritrea.
    Our Ports are being sought like crazy while China is doing business in Djibouti.
    Call me naive or coward,if you wish but I do not trust the West and its Puppets.

  6. First and foremost, such expressions as " you are agame, woyane" etc. do not help to build consensus among genuine Eritreans. They are divisive ploys being sowed by isaias afewerki and his cabals to pit us against each other as a means to achieve their evil dreams,......................

    Knowing full well the exclusive iron grip isaias afewerki has maintained over Eritreans over the last twenty four years and the systematic and fundamental disintegration he has effected over social fabric of the people and over the economic infrastructure , to say now that it should be left to the Eritreans to change their desperate situation is naive at best , and at worst, a plot to give a blank check to isaias afewerki to realize his evil dream. No, he must be preempted through every means necessary, including the UN.

    Is woyane salivating to swallow our country if chose ensues in the aftermath of the demise of isaias afewerki? Of course. In fact the reason it has divided the so called " Eritrean oppositions" into warring factions is with an eye towards that opportunity. For a genuine Eritrean, therefore, to say otherwise , is simply reckless , ignonimy.

    What should we do to deny that opportunity to woyane? We must all agree before it is too late that isaias afewerki and woyane are two faces of the same coin , and therefore, we must all end our relation with each of them, and come to unity around Eritrean Sovereignty and its territorial integrity and around the 1997 ratified People' Constitution.

    By the way, if you or any one else can pesuade the usurper isaias to give himself up peacefully to be tried for a crime of genocide, the Eritrean people will be for ever grateful to you.

  7. Why, what for ? LOL LOL

  8. Sorry to say but..... you smell agame agame FuFFFFF ! LOL LOL

  9. Ato Tewelde G/Mariam... this words " you are agame, Komal..", were there long ago don't blame anyone...if you're a real Eritrean, then definetly these words where used by you, yourself too, unless you want to appear now as the Angel and the good boy..

    You said: We must all agree before it is too late that isaias afewerki and woyane are two faces of the same coin , and therefore, we must all end our relation with each of them, and come to unity...= Thank you sir but we know what is good for us...if you want to end you relation with your Woyane, please be our guest and do it...

    From all the above, i can understand it looks you're keeping a grunge towards H.E. Mr. President ISSAYAS AFEWERKI... Eritreans know perfectly that the name ISSAYAS AFEWERKI & SHAEBIA is a nightmare for Woyanes and you perfectly match with their quality.

  10. getto trash
    you are not eritrean just a lowlife gettotrash talking trash in af dessication arena shaboodog

  11. ኣሌክ - Alec youJuly 12, 2015 at 10:04 AM

    Nebsi everyone here knows that u are ugumesh. u are just farting..and scared becuz ur woyane-tigray's life is coming to an End from the North and in the middle of the South.

  12. ኣሌክ - Alec youJuly 12, 2015 at 10:07 AM

    Dude u hate that Agame word cuz u are one.. if u were Eritrean that word wouldn't upset u. LOL

    And the thing is ugumesh, the Ethio-pple are on the edge and they're only waiting for a reason to rise up against the woyane-tigray. And thats why the woyane are scared.. becuz they willl also face a large rebellion from the pple inside... yep just like Libya, Yemen and Syria. thats the scary part that makes woyane and their stooges like u shaking in ur Harambe. :D

  13. ኣሌክ - Alec youJuly 12, 2015 at 10:15 AM

    The pple of Ethiopia are so fade up... now Ginbot 7 is given them hope, now they have a reason to rise up against the woyane-tigray apartheid regime and free themselves.

    And thats why the woyane are scared.. becuz they will also face a large rebellion from the pple inside... yep just like Libya, Yemen and Syria. thats the scary part that makes woyane-tigray shaking in their Harambe.

  14. ኣሌክ - Alec youJuly 12, 2015 at 10:15 AM

    STFU...sahsah Agame!!!...

  15. ኣሌክ - Alec youJuly 12, 2015 at 10:16 AM

    Yes indeed, Woyane-tigray's bitch. LOL..

  16. ኣሌክ - Alec youJuly 12, 2015 at 10:34 AM

    Why so we can give ur handlers something to talk about? No No No... just deal with the Ethiopian-Rebels just like Libya and Syria or Yemen. :)

  17. Tewelde G/mariamJuly 12, 2015 at 5:41 PM

    Badme is in the hands of woyane/agame for almost Thirty years. What does that make you , a gutless monkey that screams with ear piercing sounds as it runs away?

    Worse of all , you are their worshipper , oblivion of who you are worshipping.

  18. Tewelde G/mariamJuly 12, 2015 at 5:48 PM

    Unfortunately, your pro isaias afewerki stance is losing steam and before you know it, he will be standing before the ICC for Crimes Against Humanity, of which the world is aware, including you but you are in denial, like ostrich burring your head in the sand.

  19. Tewelde G/mariamJuly 12, 2015 at 5:57 PM

    As they say, it is a terrible thing to waste one's mind, of whichb you are a living testimony; you worship the agames having no clue whom you worshipping.

  20. You smell woyane woyane Yuuuuk ! LOL

  21. I would rather worship "an agame" who keep fighting for my Eritreanism than pure Eritrean who want to sell me back to my colonizers once again. Riisi tukhan! LOL LOL

  22. U got him wedi erey LOL LOL zanzara meliA iza geza..... flit flit ! LOL LOL

  23. He want us to save his woyane a--- LOL
    fool me once......shaebia lebimna ina iba beleley LOL

  24. ኣሌክ - Alec youJuly 13, 2015 at 9:08 AM

    Indeed, Atngrhalomn ena loms, Lebimna Ena!! No more kindness!!!...

  25. ኣሌክ - Alec youJuly 13, 2015 at 9:09 AM



  26. You are still screaming like gutless monkey that shiierks as it runs away from Badme to save its life.

    Do you understand the moral of my sort of advice? But again, you would not have been a cult worshipper of the very person you are trying to disparage; you cannot distinguish the sheep from the wolf in sheep clothing. W

    However, let me tell you what my advice is all about; Badme is our integral territory but is under woyane/agame occupation for the last thirty years. On the eve of our military Victory over Ethiopia and Soviet surrogate, it was secretly handed to woyane by isaias afewerki whose cult you worship. Why?

    Badme was handed over to woyane to be used as a pretext for the 1998 war he launched over Ethiopia in violation of International Law, in which, we must have no doubt, that the Eritrean Defense Forces were to be led by isaias afewerki to defeat and the Eritrean people to be exposed to disaster of majore magnitude. Of this, the easy penetration of woyane military into Eritrea, their long walk in Eritrea undetected by our security to fall on our Gash-Barka Front from their rear end with debilitating consequence is the embodiment of isaias afewrrki treachery. But Why?

    In a nut shell, the answer is, to shock the Eritrean people into purging their pride of national, historical , linguistic and ultural heritage into submitting to his evil prescription of defeatism, which he calculated to be the predisposing psychological factor to follow him like Messiah.

    The complete abolition of their Baito, Constitution , the incarcerations of the Senior EPLF Officials, the clamp down of freedom of speech, press ete. reinforced by Reign of Terror were to make sure his evil intention is realized.

    To drive home his evil plot, isaias afewerki has been exhibiting dual and contradictory personalities: one is covert which can only be inferred from its destructive work. The other is the overt , which he uses to deceive the naive part of our population by pasting his evil work on others, mostly the Western world.

    This is what it boils down to: woyane is isaias afewerki and isaias afewerki is woyane. They are behaving in antagonistic ways to divide and break our backbone, libi tigrai is twi twai, as our forefathers said. We must judge them using their savage standard, and not our civilized one.

    The correct way forward is to reject both, woyane and isaias afewerki, and on their ashes build our consensus amongst ourselves around Eritrean Sovereignty and its territorial integrity and around our Constitution we ratified 1997.

    Isaias afewerki is aware that his days are numbered. That is why he is again pushing for war with ethiopia through his proxies, Demhits and others. We must preempt his evil plot.

    Stop Bickering and Start Rebuilding The Bridges We Broke In Folly!!


    Thank you for letting me air my views on your website. I know I am repeating the same theme but it is only because I sincerely believe it is the stepping stone to our success. Thank you again.

  27. If the US wants to dismantle your Eritrea,do you think it will take this long? Why did they tell Ethiopia to stop short of your asmara when meles was ready to show you Ethiopias might. ? Ethiopians if you ever start another war ,will ,like the last one rise in unison ,north /south,east /west and that will be the end for Dia. You have been dreaming of a failed state in your south ,what the world is worrried is a failed Eritrean state,,,keep dreaming and when you wake up you will find your Eritrea in small....Goood luck

  28. ኣሌክ - Alec youJuly 13, 2015 at 12:03 PM

    Ha-ha-ha... just go see it in that who the US saved who... LOL u pple, No worries tho.. cuz like i said this time... we're are going to send ur brothers that only work for food. So keep shaking that harambe....:D

  29. First and foremost you have to free (unchain) yourself from the little woyane inside you Mr.T
    That little woyane in your head make you cry Isayas Isayas from your rathole day and night and
    this tells me that you overestimate your little knowledge and underestimate the people of Eritrea who fight to defend and build the nation holding their breath while stretching their muscles do miracles. Can you join the people Sir? Stop! Dont reply, I know you will call his name again LOL

  30. To tell you the truth, I am jelouse of the man who make you cry his name day in day out LOL

  31. KirKir, Why don't you unchain yourself and your people from your slave master, Issayas and then talk about the unchaining of people of foreign lands that neither you or your stupid ass Askari government has the capability to unchain?

  32. When you guys call His Excellency name more and more, I get jelouse of his Gallantry
    Dog'ali boy LOL

  33. Tewelde G/mariamJuly 13, 2015 at 3:35 PM

    Who do you think is in chain, you who is apologizing and eulogizing for the convicted criminal, or me who is exposing his hideouts?

    The world will say that it is you in chain. But you would say otherwise because you have abdicated your Humanity in the service of the villain.

    Who is underestimating the people of Eritrea, you who is propping up the one who has been waging Reign of Terror on them, or me who is digging the grave of their mortal enemy?

    The world will say that you are underestimating them. But you will say otherwise because you have chosen servitude to the villain over freedom of your own people.

    Does the reality support your claim that economic miracle is unraveling in Eritrea?

    Absolutely, no. The fact that the European Union is talking as what to do with the young Eritreans flooding their countries, the UN is investigating into your master's Crime Against Humanity etc. bear the Truth.

    Of course, you will parrot your master's evasive semantics. First you will say as he did, the UNHCR and other organizations are creating Eritrean from the the thin air, and when the reality become incontestable, you will say as he did that the Europeans are encouraging Eritreans to leave their country etc. Why do you say all that? Because you have sold your soul to servitude. You are a dead-man walking.

    Let me repeat what said previously that woyane and isaias are simply two faces of the same coin. Any one who says otherwise is either uttering falsehood on purpose, or is incurably ignorant.

    The correct path for all of us, genuine Eritreans, is to come together by rebuilding the bridges we had broken through folly. Let us join hands around our Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity, and around our Constitution we ratified in 1997.

    And remember the maxim: United We Stand, Divided We Fall!!



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