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Ethiopian Regime Quietly Disintegrating


Although Prime Minister Haile Mariam Desalegn holds the highest office in Ethiopia, he has no real authority. He is described as a  Medvedev for a group of Putins in the ruling TPLF party.


Ethiopian Regime Quietly Disintegrating

By AfricanIntelligence,

The general election looming ahead in 2015 is already casting a shadow over the Ethiopian government, whose sole uniting bond would seem to be its praise for the memory of its late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.

His portraits are on all the walls in Addis Ababa, which was not the case when he was alive, and in the Federal Assembly a video projector plays his speeches with the aim of inspiring the new MPs. And yet, since Meles Zenawi died in August 2012, the federal government has been rudderless, lacking a descendent.

His successor as Prime Minister, Haile Mariam Desalegn, has neither the grip nor the political clout and has not managed to impose himself on the other political leaders. He frequently has to be content with merely dealing with everyday business. While it is true the Ethiopian State, whose tradition goes back a long way has not fallen into decadence, the different factions and regionalist tendencies are making federal power increasingly fragmented.

Divisions produce inertia - Going beyond appearances, the ruling coalition Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Frong (EPRDF) is in embryonic Crisis state. Its central core, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), is deeply divided between "provincial" faction led by the Tigray Regional State President Abay Woldu, and the "modern nationalist" faction headed by Deputy Prime Minister Debretsion Gebremicahel, not to forget the various other Tigrayan sub-factions such as those of the elderly Marxist Sebhat Nega and the Meles Zenawi's widow Azeb Mesfin.

Facing this inter-Tigrayan squablle, the Amhara in the ANDM and the Oromo in the OPDO (two of the parties in the ruling coalition) are watching from the wings, biding their time before they go into the arena. This freezes the decision-making power, as each faction does not want to make the wrong decision and yield an advantage to its rivals. In early April, speaking on a live TV debate (a rare event in itself), Amare Aregawi the editor of The reporter asked the Prime Minister who is it that makes the decisions in the office and whether he is capable of making any himself. Much to the surprise of the viewers who are used to seeing decisiveness on their screens, Haile Mariam Desalegn mumbled an unconvincing response, confirming that the question had indeed struck home.

The economy and diplomacy are broken - Ethiopian diplomacy suffers from a lack of leadership at the top of country. Questions about the situation in Somalia are left to the head of the Ethiopian army which is intervening directly in its neighbour's territory. In the case of the IGAD mediation in the South Sudan crisis, the former foreign affairs minister Seyoum Mesfin was recalled from his post of ambassador to Beijing to lead the mediation. He nevertheless played a fairly effective role of mediator, which was largely taken over by the Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni even though Ethiopia did at the time hold the presidency of IGAD.

Similar blockages have produced similar effects in the management of the State-oned companies. The telephone network run by Ethio Telecom (formerly ETC) provides a very poor service, mainly because of frequent electricity outages which also affect the water distribution system when the electric pumps stop running. The cause is breakdowns of the aging transformers purchased second-hand from India by the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO) several years ago. Today, EEPCO and ETC are squabbling over who should pay the cost of renovating the electricity system, a problem which Debretsion Gebremicael, the chairman of the EEPCO and ETC boards, has been unable to settle.

Regionalism becoming more intense - Since the end of April, the federal police have brutally repressed student protests against the Master Plan in several universities in the Oromia Regional State. This Master Plan involves the expansion of Addis Ababa whose mayor, Diriba Kuma, is also an Oromo.

In the students' view, this project would eat into Oromo land and reduce the area their language is used. This is regionalist exacerbation is illustrated by certain of the student slogans, proclaiming "Oromia for Oromos" and by the start of misdemeanours against Amhara farmers obliged to leave their land and take refuge in Addis Ababa.

Certain TPLF officials have no qualms to explain that in their view, some ultra-regionalist elements of the ruling OPDO are discreetly fueling this student protest movement against the Master Plan.

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Ethiopian Regime Quietly Disintegrating Reviewed by Admin on 9:42 AM Rating: 5

48 comments:

  1. Ethiopia DisintegratingMay 11, 2014 at 9:48 AM

    "The telephone network run by Ethio Telecom (formerly ETC) provides a very poor service, mainly because of frequent electricity outages which also affect the water distribution system when the electric pumps stop running. The cause is breakdowns of the aging transformers purchased second-hand from India."

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ethiopia DisintegratingMay 11, 2014 at 9:49 AM

    Regionalism becoming more intense - Since the end of April, the federal police have brutally repressed student protests against the Master Plan in several universities in the Oromia Regional State. This Master Plan involves the expansion of Addis Ababa. In the students' view, this project would eat into Oromo land and reduce the area their language is used. This is regionalist exacerbation is illustrated by certain of the student slogans, proclaiming "Oromia for Oromos" and by the start of misdemeanours against Amhara farmers obliged to leave their land and take refuge in Addis Ababa.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Guys, stop day dreaming. Ethiopia is doing pretty well and even if the situation deteriorates and Ethiopia finds itself in the middle of political turmoil we need to remember that that will have negative effect on all neighbouring countries including Eritrea. the point is , we must not be happy when our neighbour Ethiopia is not doing well.

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  4. Oromia for OromosMay 11, 2014 at 10:37 AM

    We have always known the truth that ethnic bantustization of ethopia will eventually unravel the country. That is what's happening.

    ReplyDelete
  5. From India ? that mast have been used and abused, I wonder how the paid for it ? may be with 100 yrs lease of fertile land belong to the poor and voice less people in the area.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Where Is Z CruiseMay 11, 2014 at 11:24 AM

    Fal_Fala

    I agree with your last statement. Lets wish each other success and prosperity. Any conflict in Ethiopia affects Eritrea and any conflict in Eritrea affects Ethiopia. The only nations that benefits out of that is the western countries. As Eritrean, I don't support if Eritrean government involves in Ethiopian internal affaire. We should let Ethiopia solve its own problems. As Eritrean, I also would like to see Ethiopia leave the Eritrean territory so we could start normalization between two countries. As Eritrean, I also want to see my nation would be ruled by constitution.

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  7. Ethiopian political design must restart from the unity of All peoples who form Ethiopia, which is ignored from the minor regime to date due to narrow mind amateur tigrayan politicians. This if not fixed soon, might rise serious concern on hegemony of each ethnic group to prevail to other cause consider himself his turn to rule the country. This is what we see since the kingdom of haile sellasie, then the communist derg regime (badly interpreted as communist ideology) and the racial divide and rule regime of the minor regime which result the worst ruling system in Ethiopia of the last four decades. Would be fruitful if anything will be done putting in consideration all people's interest, a balance among all peoples of ethiopia. Hope this will be adopted among them.

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  8. Sillas Wallace. That is an interesting name.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Aybelnan'do Aybelnan'doye. Ethiopia's puppet regime near collapse.

    ReplyDelete
  10. An very good example why I chose this pen name.

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  11. The funnest thing what I see in Eritrean elite and Ethiopian opposition is, they say " the minor regime to date due to narrow mind amateur tigrayan politicians" as you say. if this is true why the country did not collapse yet? for me this total deception, if you going judge TPLF first you are going to look its neighbors like Somali, Eritrea, Sudan, because the awareness of people live in the horn Africa is not too much difference. for me I never seen dynamic and knowledgeable political organization than TPLF in the horn Africa.

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  12. pappagallo hunterMay 12, 2014 at 8:52 AM

    Who cares how Ethiopians run their country,specially while our country sinking faster than Titanic.the second part i want to say is WHAT THE FUCK ARE TALKING ABOUT,you have no brain or knowledge to explain the present and past political systems of ethiopa.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Lol @ Ethiopia is doing pretty well. Please stop fooling yourself. More people are fleeing Ethiopian than any country on Earth. Ethiopia is a failed state.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Ethnic federalism has made Ethiopia the basket case failed state it is today. This is what happens when you let tribal warlords Afghanistanize a country.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Ethnic federalism has made Ethiopia the basket case failed state it is today. This is what happens when you let tribal warlords Afghanistanize a country..

    ReplyDelete
  16. The sooner ethiopia disintegrates the better it would be for the whole of east africa.
    TIGRAYANES flexing their muscle at the expence of oromos and amhara. Ironic! Disentigration would also facilitate the process for tigrayans to adopt their old ragged way of life. When that happens we will see where the tigrayans would go after bitting the hand that was feeding them.

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  17. horn,
    I don't care where they go as long as they don't migrate to Eritrea. We could use Listros but we don't need Agame beggars.
    Nobody is going to let them stab us in the back again.
    AGAME FUNFUNAT IYOM!

    ReplyDelete
  18. pappagallo hunterMay 12, 2014 at 1:49 PM

    ASADAGI YEBEDELW,i blame your parents,you are not Eritrean. you are funfun nibaelka ,bezi rshe afka hager tetserf mushmush hatela.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Ethiopia is Love, Ethiopia is love. Ethiopia is Love ! It is so! ya may try but it is Love!

    ReplyDelete
  20. Ethiopia is LOVE!

    ReplyDelete
  21. Tigiraway,
    What works in one country doesn’t mean it will also work in
    another country. Ethiopia and Eritrea are very different countries when it comes to choosing the type of governance they should have. For instance, national oppression is the central issue in Ethiopia while it is insignificant in Eritrea. National oppression means the mistreatment of people depending on what their nationality/ethnic background is. For example, in Ethiopia if you are an Amhara, Oromo, Gurage, etc, your social status in the community is always different depending on your ethnic background and also depending who the leading elite is in the country. If you are a member of the ethnic background where the ruling party came from, then you will be leading a financially or psychologically, or both, comfortable life. For example, being Tigraway in 1985 in Ethiopia is a completely different story compared to that of Tigraway in 2014 (or Tigraway after 1991). In 1985, you wouldn’t be advertizing your name, ”Tigraway”, as you are doing now because it was a dangerous time and you could be questioned, tortured, imprisoned, and even be killed just because some government official (Derg Abal) didn’t like you and wants you dead because he “thinks” you are “wonbede”. It is also unquestionable how much Ethiopian you felt in those two different times? Let me ask you a question, do you now feel 100% Ethiopian? How about in 1985? If you were not born in 1985, ask your relatives how they felt. Because, I know it’s a fact that your relatives were so upset and disgusted by the way they were treated by the fascist government of Ethiopia and decided to liberate Tigray from the rest of Ethiopia. And they did liberate Tigray and administered it for three years before continuing to
    overthrow the Derg.

    But for us, Eritreans, national oppression has never been a
    central issue as our enemies have always been outsiders such as, the Italians, the British, and the Ethiopians etc. Whether it is in the 1940s, 1960s, 1985, or 2014, more than 98% of Eritreans have always felt Eritrean mainly because of the common enemy we had and because no one Ethnic group has ruled over another toa point one is oppressed by the other. Ethnic Federalism is not the answer for us because it has never been an issue in Eritrea.

    In Ethiopia, however, you do need ethnic federalizm to
    resolve ethnic clinsing and respect the right of every Ethiopian so that every Ethiopian enjoys Ethiopianess. Unfortunately, however, what is written in your constitution and what is happening on the ground are two very diferent stories.

    Therefore, please understand that there is a reason behind
    every government’s philosophy/strategy followed to resolve their differences, solve their problems and advance their country.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Ugum,
    Take it easy. Milking Ethios will have some end someday and that would be the end of Hailemariams too :)

    ReplyDelete
  23. smashing oromo heads is out of love, huh? LOL

    ReplyDelete
  24. cuz ya rubbish :)

    ReplyDelete
  25. WoW... blood pressure might be on the cause :)

    ReplyDelete
  26. Banana regitskum shetaH-taH !
    Hager mimrah iko, Arebiya mimraH aykonen, gorobet :)

    ReplyDelete
  27. Don't be angry if i say "minor" is real, if were amhara or oromo lead the country i could use the adjective "major"..then about the awareness and the dynamism of the government and people is so far from what you're saying. If you let me then i'll ask you farther more a question that is becoming clear with time, 1- What was the reason the minor regime in ethiopia intervened in Somalia in 2006, 2011 ect? 2- Was that ethiopians will?

    From the answer of these questions I can deduce that the minor regime is not at all dynamic rather servant, (that was what he did, on behalf of others).

    ReplyDelete
  28. Kirkir,

    LOL! Hager mimrah iko, Arebiya mimraH aykonen, gorobet :)

    Classic!

    ReplyDelete
  29. hahahahahhaha it is funny. bizeben Wubie zitsememes Wubie enabele yinebir

    ReplyDelete
  30. The reason is the Islamist clime Ogaden is belong to Somali and they declarer war on Ethiopia. second Alshebab is an extremest if they get the power in Somali it is easy for them to spread their Ideology to Ethiopia. if this kind of extremest Ideology spread in the people of Ethiopia no body is control it just like Boko Haram in Nigeria. So Ethiopia inter to Somali for it interest.
    I did not deny TPLF is minerty in Ethiopia but what i oppose "narrow mind amateur tigrayan politicians"
    let me ask you can you tell me either any political organization in the horn Africa better than TPLF? who? can you mention one please?

    ReplyDelete
  31. http://www.meskerem.net/newsEthiopia.htm

    What development looks like.

    ReplyDelete
  32. I am agree with most of your coment. but you are right there is a national oppression during the Haileslasse dainisty, but there is no national oppression during the derg time. Derg is killing for every body who oppose him , he did not care whether you are Tigraway, Oromo, Amhara, Eritrean etc
    for you ask me, what I feel about Ethiopia, I feel Tigraway Identity but Ethiopian nationality. (I believe united by difference)
    As you say I am agree with you ethnic federalism is good for Ethiopia because of the past history and I did not say Ethnic federalism is good for Eritrea but I believe the current system in Eritrea is not good for Eritrea.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Why this guys you mention wasn't present at negus haile sellasie time? or even why during derg era? Did they come all of sudden during melles period? I don't share the idea you have about fear..
    I know perfectly if i come to your house and start to dictate about how you do things and even try to disintegrate your stay, i'm sure you'll react, like in physics you're action react a reaction. I think neseka lebbam ika kaleh keybelku yeredaaka yemeslenni..
    Nezom sebat gez om kiedka ente zey rebbeshkayom, i don't think metsiyom sheger kefetru..izi iyu emnetey..kaleh nay gedam propoganda, nai ethiopia keman aykonen..100% i can tell you tegraway..

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  34. Tigraway this is not what we Eritreans see, is the voice that comes from Ethiopia, saying tigaru are in all key position of the majority of the administrations..
    Then of course this is not our (Eritrean) business is something that you have to live with yourselves not us. The more you'll be fair with all groups the more you'll survive together with all, and vice versa. Bob Marley says once: you can fool people one time, but you can't fool people all the time.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Hey guy, there is no majority or minority rule in Ethiopia and there can not be. Politically, we say majority rule in a specific country if certain group of the population consists of more than 84% of the population. In Ethiopia, there is no any group that consists of more than 30% of the population. So, we can not talk about minority or majority in countries like Ethiopia. C'est clair?

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  36. TPLF transformed itself from a successful rebel group to a successful ruling party long time ago and is doing miracles in Ethiopia transforming the nation as never before and even dominating the entire east Africa politically, economically, militarily. EPLF is still in its guerrilla mentality. So, it is a grave mistake to compare TPLF to EPLF. EPLF is at least 50 years behind TPLF.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hello halhal
    here u go again. Arebiya ab Asmera ember ab Tigray yelen. Slezi, arebiya migutat biaka eyu tejemirun tefetirun.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Madote,
    Mind your business.Whatabout Eritrea where every genral is getting killed every day and the Youth is fleeing with out control.Very shameful here--Weyo netti natensi ni-enda'maten.
    talk about savingEritrea.
    Ethiopia is in the BEST shape ever in her history.
    denakur.

    ReplyDelete
  39. This is going to wind down in few weeks. The incident in Oroms region will go away as other similar incidents did. It will run out its news worthy in few weeks. Thing will go as planned to integrate the city with the orom's special zone. Some times people see what they want to see based on their political and economical interest without looking into the fundamentals that are on the ground that will force to bring changes. In this case the suggestion mentioned in the article is just an observation based on micro politics . the macro politics of the country is intact. To see some political changes in Ethiopia, the country has to go through some kind of disaster or the country must lose a major war for political change to happen ,until then the party in power will be in power for a while in Ethiopia, get used to it.

    ReplyDelete
  40. This is what you think, to the ground i guess they have masters who tells them what to do. So some one is guiding them as remote tool from so far away. You get the point? tpfs are only hands, the mind is elsewhere. We know where. To the contrary, we're hands and mind at the same time, our fate we decide it by ourselves as in the beginning, Tplf are not accountable cause dependent on the same minds who subside her as Aid, humanitarian I mean. Do you confirm this? If only this actors who are behind tplf remove their patronage from her, the result is obvious: famine as in 1984, 1994, 2011. In amharic they call it "dirki". First be self sufficient, self reliance, believe on YOUR OWN HANDS not western AID, then we can talk about comparing, east Africa power ect..From your suggestion I can understand that are westerns powerful still in east africa excluding Eritrea from this BEGGAR-DONOR relationship to date which to the contrary left decades ago any cent from eu, us, un, canada, au ect..

    ReplyDelete
  41. Hangolom akemittom nekalo ot amahaduruna ilomom, what was better for them, of course gedamawian told them like doctors izi medhanit neakatkum is good, mesakin weyin kea, wihitato..iti saebien ke? abune aregawi yerda ayom ember..kellil aykonen, kab zeatewewa àzekti mewtsaeh ashegari koynu..Iti kab kaleh zegerem, wayane ab mieda kella nay social zebel philosophy nieruwa, hegi ab adi mes atewet, kem nefahito tekeyira..Nai africawian betàmi iyu zegerem..bekebdom iyom zegezeu..feel sorry,

    ReplyDelete
  42. Relativity concept...dear cosmos. 1 < 1,2 (relatively)..by 0,2 amount, tegrayan (8.000.000 people) < oromo (42.000.000 people). just realtively.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Ethiopia PM at odds with TPLF on Oromo protests


    Wed,May 14th, 2014


    Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn is once again at odds with the powerful TPLF branch of EPRDF ruling party, according to sources connected to his adminstration. This time the dispute is on government response to Oromo protests in Oromia region, according to a journalist of an English weekly paper who asked to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals.


    Hailemariam, an ethnic Welayta native, does not have the military background and the political power that former Tigrayan Prime Minister Meles zenawi had. Meles was the executive head of the Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) for over thirty years. Even though various ethnic groups are well represented inside the Ethiopian military, most of the top executive positions are held by Tigrayans. Some reports claim that around 70 percent of the country’s top generals and military leaders are still ethnic Tigrayan today, even though Tigrayans makeup only 6 percent of the Ethiopian population.


    The Govt source said TPLF military chiefs wanted to stop the peaceful Oromo student protest early before it turned into riots, but there was “lack of leadership and policy from Arat Kilo,” (refering to the Menelik Palace were the PM resides. )


    Despite their small numbers in the country, Hailemariam’s ethnic Welaytas are said to have significant presence in the mid-level positions in the army and federal force. However, TPLF’s military heads complain that Hailemariam portrays a “soft leader” image and the police has been overstretched with nonstop demonstrations for months. They say the public is emboldened to take their angers to the streets since Meles died. Since 2013, millions of Muslim Ethiopians have been protesting in the cities while the “legal opposition” groups have also organized various protests, sometimes without permit. But the recent Oromo protests have irritated the TPLF military authorities the most, as some OPDO (another EPRDF branch) members have provided covert support.


    The source said Hailemariam’s chances of being re-elected to lead EPRDF ruling party are slim. Hailemariam has also been under American pressure to deliver a peace deal in South Sudan, though some TPLF army officials are suspicious of the Sudanese opposition.


    TPLF military chiefs claimed South Sudan peace deals signed in Addis Ababa are symbolic but meaningless on the ground because the rebel leader Riek Machar does not have full control of opposition fighters.



    http://somalilandpress.com/ethiopia-pm-at-odds-with-tplf-on-oromo-protests-50922

    ReplyDelete
  44. Ethiopia PM at odds with TPLF on Oromo protests

    NA Post | May 14th, 2014

    Somalilandpress.com

    May 14, 2014

    Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn is once again at odds with the powerful TPLF branch of EPRDF ruling party, according to sources connected to his adminstration. This time the dispute is on government response to Oromo protests in Oromia region, according to a journalist of an English weekly paper who asked to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals.

    Hailemariam, an ethnic Welayta native, does not have the military background and the political power that former Tigrayan Prime Minister Meles zenawi had. Meles was the executive head of the Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) for over thirty years. Even though various ethnic groups are well represented inside the Ethiopian military, most of the top executive positions are held by Tigrayans. Some reports claim that around 70 percent of the country’s top generals and military leaders are still ethnic Tigrayan today, even though Tigrayans makeup only 6 percent of the Ethiopian population.

    Nominal PM Hailemariam (l) & wily TPLF boss Debretsion (r). Debretsion is reportedly calling the shots from behind the scene.

    The Govt source said TPLF military chiefs wanted to stop the peaceful Oromo student protest early before it turned into riots, but there was “lack of leadership and policy from Arat Kilo,” (refering to the Menelik Palace were the PM resides. )

    Despite their small numbers in the country, Hailemariam’s ethnic Welaytas are said to have significant presence in the mid-level positions in the army and federal force. However, TPLF’s military heads complain that Hailemariam portrays a “soft leader” image and the police has been overstretched with nonstop demonstrations for months. They say the public is emboldened to take their angers to the streets since Meles died. Since 2013, millions of Muslim Ethiopians have been protesting in the cities while the “legal opposition” groups have also organized various protests, sometimes without permit. But the recent Oromo protests have irritated the TPLF military authorities the most, as some OPDO (another EPRDF branch) members have provided covert support.

    The source said Hailemariam’s chances of being re-elected to lead EPRDF ruling party are slim. Hailemariam has also been under American pressure to deliver a peace deal in South Sudan, though some TPLF army officials are suspicious of the Sudanese opposition.

    TPLF military chiefs claimed South Sudan peace deals signed in Addis Ababa are symbolic but meaningless on the ground because the rebel leader Riek Machar does not have full control of opposition fighters.
    NB: Just patient, the End of Weyane is near.

    ReplyDelete
  45. don wory arebyia mdfea wun srah eyu ngze reasku meslika kab nay beadi tkabo( kareta lmano)mtsbay eyu newri like your contry servent of the western

    ReplyDelete
  46. ETHIOPIA

    Sebhat Nega blows hot and cold

    REMOVED from the politburo of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in 2010, Sebhat Nega still holds hopes of once again heading the party he helped to found.

    Despite his advancing years and his ousting from the top of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF, mainstay of the coalition ruling Ethiopia) and from EFFORT (the holding company for TPLF companies), Sebhat Nega is keen to go beyond his current post of executive director of the pro-government Ethiopian International Institute for Peace and Development (EIIPD).

    An old hand in the TPLF who has long been in dispute with Azeb Mesfin, the widow of the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, he is still making his presence felt behind the political scenes.

    While on a tour of the Tigray Regional State in early May to sound out the local TPLF leaders, managers and activists, Sebhat Nega hit the headlines when he agreed with those present at a meeting denouncing corruption, nepotism and iniquity of the Ethiopian regime. He then immediately toned down his criticisms stating “we must join together to solve these problems”.

    Interviewed about the TPLF’s record on the German radio station Deutsche Welle in the Amharic language a few days ago, Sebhat Nega defended the party’s policies over the 23 years it has been in power since 1991.

    He justified sidelining the pan-Ethiopian organisations in the Transitional Conference of the time. Nevertheless, he then stated he was prepared to launch a campaign himself to reconcile with these poletical groups.

    http://www.africaintelligence.com/ION/politics-power/2014/05/23/sebhat-nega-blows-hot-and-cold,108023774-ART

    ReplyDelete

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